The race for the Oke-Mosan Governor’s seat in Abeokuta, Ogun state, is on. Do not be deceived by the seemingly calm surface and the business as usual ambience that pervades the political firmament of the Gateway State. Beneath that deceptively calm surface, political gladiators in the state are busy oiling their political machinery and servicing existing political structures in preparation for the 2015 governorship elections in the state. The plot is to unseat the incumbent governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun. The chant is “Amosun Must Go!”
The heat is particularly intense as a result of the belief in political circles in the state that the next elections would be holding next year, 2014, and not in the year 2015 as widely believed. Since the INEC rule stipulates that there must be a six month period between the election date and the date of swearing in; and since a new government must be sworn in come May 2015, political analysts are of the opinion that elections into political offices would hold in the last quarter of 2014 and not in 2015.
And so, the race is on and it promises to be very fierce and competitive. Ogun State is a hot bed of Nigerian politics, having produced such political giants as the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former Head of Interim Government Chief Earnest Sonekan, former Governor Olusegun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, to mention just a few.
The state, which was created 37 years ago is made up of three senatorial districts and. twenty local government area : the Ogun Central Senatorial District, the Ogun East Senatorial District and The Ogun West Senatorial District,
.The Ogun Central Senatorial District is made up of six local government areas largely populated by the Egba people, the Ogun East Senatorial District is made up of nine local government areas largely populated by the Ijebu and Remo people of Ogun State, while the Ogun West Senatorial District is made up of five local government areas largely populared by the Yewa/ Awori people. It is however interesting to note that in the close to four decades of the state’s existence all the other zones, except Ogun West have occupied the governorship position of the state at one time or the other.
The first civilian Governor of the state, Chief Olabisi Onabanjo was an Ijebu man from Ogun East, former Governor Olusegun Osoba was an Egba man from Ogun Central, former Governor Otunba Gbenga Daniel was a Remo indigene from Ogun East, while the incumbent Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, is also an Owu man from Ogun Central, leaving the Ogun West zone to continue the clamour for an Ogun State Governor of Yewa/Awori extraction. The Yewa/Awori people of Ogun West believe very strongly that for equity, justice and fair play to reign, the zone must be allowed to produce the next Governor of the state, come 2015.
Political gladiators from the two other zones tend to disagree with this. They accuse the Yewa/Awori people of not being sincere and united in the pursuit of their ambition to produce the next Governor of the state. In the words of a prominent politician from Ogun Central, “Ogun West is not sincere. They are not united and a house that is divided against itself will fall. The Yewa/Awori people are their own biggest problem. Every house in the zone wants to produce the next Governor. Why can’t they all unite and line up behind one consensus candidate from their zone, if they are really serious about producing the next Governor of Ogun State?”
Besides this, the present configuration of the state might make it impossible for the Ogun West Senatorial District to ever produce a Governor in Ogun State. This is so because the five local governments in that district are peopled by the Yewa and the Awori people. The Ado-Odo/Ota local government for instance, which is just one out of the five local government areas in the Ogun East Senatorial District, is largely dominated by the Awori people with a population of about 472,000 (four hundred and seventy two thousand) people. And it wouldn’t be wrong to say that a large percentage of the people that make up the population of this local government are not Awori indigenes but settlers from other parts of the state. Interestingly, the other four local governments largely populated by the Yewa people have a population of about 550,000 (five hundred and fifty thousand) people. Note that the overall population of Ogun State is well over three million people. So, even if the Yewa/Awori come together to line up behind a candidate and vote en-masse for that candidadte in their bid to actualize their dream to produce a Governor from their zone, they would still need the support of the other two zones for this dream to be realized. Sadly, the Yewa/Awori do not seem to be united in their cry for an Ogun State Governor to emerge from that zone.
Just recently, the Olu of Ilaro, who is also the paramount ruler of Yewa land, publicly endorsed the incumbent Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, an Ogun Central indigene, for a second term. That apart, a quick look at the statistics of the 2011 governorship election in the state would reveal that the incumbent Governor of the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, an Owu man from the Ogun Central Senatorial District garnered more votes in the Ogun West Senatorial District than Chief Tunji Olurin and Alhaji Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, and to think that the latter and the former are indigenes of the Ogun West Senatorial District! What more evidence does one need to confirm that the Ogun West Senatorial District is indeed not ready to produce a Governor for the Gateway State?
The Ogun West (Yewa/Awori) zone are certainly isolated in their belief that it is their turn to produce a Governor for the Gateway State. The rate at which contenders are springing up across the three senatorial districts in the state and the number of aspirants that are silently working towards unseating the incumbent Governor is a confirmation that there are very few subscribers to the theory that the Governorship seat of Ogun State should be zoned to a particular section of the state. Let us take a look at the long list of pretenders and contenders for the Governorship seat at Oke-Mosan in 2015.
Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (G.N.I): A seasoned investment banker, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka came into the limelight of Ogun State politics when he was appointed as Group Managing Director of Gateway Holdings Limited, the investment arm of the Ogun State government under the Otunba Gbenga Daniel administration. His meritorious achievements at Gateway Holdings coupled with his outstanding academic laurels which include a first class degree in Accounting from the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, placed him in good stead to aspire to succeed Otunba Gbenga Daniel as the Governor of Ogun State. Isiaka rode on the back of Daniel’s determination to hand over to a successor from the Yewa/Awori zone and contested for the number one position in the state on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but the party was badly factionalised.
G.N.I., as he is fondly called, won the party primaries conducted by the Otunba Gbenga Daniel faction of the party but his victory was short lived as a High Court in Abuja nullified the said primaries and instead recognized the primaries conducted by the Obasanjo faction of the party, which threw up his fellow Yewa man, Chief Tunji Olurin, as the party’s Governorship candidate. Determined to actualize his ambition of mounting the saddle as the Governor of Ogun State, Gboyega Isiaka left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with his supporters and pitched tent with the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), where he became the party’s flagbearer for the 2011 elections. He contested that election as the Governorship candidate of the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) and lost, thus joining the long list of former Governorship aspirants in the Gateway State.
However, as 2015 approaches, this politician who hails from Imeko in Imeko Afon Local Government, is back in the trenches with his supporters. But while political watchers agree that Isiaka is at an advantage, as a result of the fact that he is not an entirely newcomer and is already a household name in Ogun state, many express the fear that his ambition might not go far if he pitches tent with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. They fear that the crisis within the party would truncate Isiaka’s ambition. Others express the fear that Isiaka does not have a political structure of his own and would have to depend largely on the political structure of his former principal, Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD). The fear becomes even more palpable when it is understood that the OGD political structure is not likely to present an Ogun West indigene for the 2015 elections. And if Isiaka does not have the backing of the OGD group, it automatically follows that he would not benefit from the funding that the group can provide. For Isiaka, the journey to Oke-Mosan appears to be a very long, dark and uncertain one.
Isiaq Abiodun Akinlade: Isiaq Abiodun Akinlade is a three term member of the House of Representatives. He won his first two terms on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and won his third term bid into the lower chamber on the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Akinlade represents the Yewa South/Ipokia Federal constituency in the Federal House of Representatives. While in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he was known to have teamed up with the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole to fight Otunba Gbenga Daniel, who was at that time the Governor of Ogun State. Today, as an Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) member in the lower house, Akinlade is known to be a rabid critic of the Action Congress administration of Governor Ibikunle Amosun in Ogun State. Close watchers of Ogun State politics cannot but wonder how this candidate intends to win the election for the number one position in the state in 2015. On which party platform would he contest? He is not known to have a stronghold in his base of Yewa South, Yewa North, Ipokia, Imeko Afon and Ado-Odo/Ota. The biggest obstacle to his ambition might be the emergence of his fellow Yewa man, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, as a governorship candidate in the 2015 election in Ogun State This would clearly divide Yewa votes. But there’s a possible solution; would Gboyega Nasir Isiaka step down for IsiaqAbiodun Akinlade or would it be the other way round? Only time would tell.
Asiwaju Olajide Awosedo: Prominent and successful real estate developer, Asiwaju Olajide Awosedo has never minced words when it comes to the issue of zoning political positions to particular sections of a state or particular sections of the country. A respected Ogun State indigene of Ijebu extraction, he was once quoted as saying, “Zoning is not an intelligent thing. If an Egba man wants to contest, I don’t know why a Remo man or woman cannot…”
Before the 2011 elections, Awosedo was an aspirant to the Governorship position of the state on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) but as the election got closer and it became increasingly clear that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State had zoned the Governorship slot to the Ogun West District, Asiwaju Olajide Awosedo cross carpeted with his supporters to the Labour Party (LP), where he became the party’s flagbearer for the 2011 elections.
The Labour Party (LP) lost that election but Awosedo did not lose the hope of becoming the Governor of Ogun State sometime in the future. That future is fast approaching as the election year, 2015, gets closer. And the Awosedo camp is quietly working round the clock to actualize the dream of its symbol. Close watchers say Asiwaju Olajide Awosedo has discreetly returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The thinking in the Awosedo camp is that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is the party to beat in Ogun State in 2015. The objective therefore is that Awosedo must clinch the PDP gubernatorial ticket to ensure a smooth ride into Oke-Mosan in 2015.
The disturbing questions however are, would the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State consider Awosedo, who is just returning to the party, worthy enough to be given the party’s governorship ticket in the next election? Would the different factions of the party in Ogun State unite to give the party’s gubernatorial ticket to this candidate? Or would Asiwaju Awosedo emerge as a factional governorship candidate whose emergence would be shortlived like that of Gboyega Isiaka in the political drama that played out just before the 2011 elections in Ogun State?
These are just some of the questions that Asiwaju Olajide Awosedo and his supporters must answer as the march towards the 2015 elections continues.
Hon. Dimeji Sabur Bankole: The former Speaker of the House of Representatives needs little or no introduction. Dimeji, who bestrode the country’s political scene like a colossus after his emergence as the Speaker of the House of Representatives suffered a massive setback in his political career when he lost the bid to return to the House as the representative of the Abeokuta South Federal Constituency, in the 2011 elections. No sooner did he become Speaker than Dimeji Bankole entered into a political duel with his benefactor and former Governor of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel. But at the approach of the 2011 elections, Dimeji retraced his steps and made peace with OGD, all in the bid to get the party ticket to contest the elections.
It is however noteworthy that Abeokuta South Federal Constituency is made up of just one local government, yet Dimeji lost that election by a wide margin. He appeared to have gone on sabbatical leave after his massive defeat at the polls, only for him to re-surface not too long ago, setting the rumour mills agog with stories that he has an aspiration to become the next Governor of Ogun State in 2015.
Very reliable sources confirm that the former Speaker is putting structures in place to contest and win the next Governorship elections in Ogun State, come 2015. After his come back, he has been meeting with stakeholders across the state and in the nation’s seat of power, Abuja, in preparation for the fierce contest ahead. He hopes to leverage on the experience and contacts of his father, Chief Alani Bankole, an old war horse who used to be the National Vice Chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Those in the know also confirm that Dimeji is still very close to the powers that be, especially in the House of Representatives. His advantage also lies in his experience as a former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Close watchers believe that Dimeji would have access to limitless personal funds as well as financial support from his many contacts in government who have promised to open the vaults to support his ambition. But many also argue that in spite of all the money he had access to during the 2007 elections, he could not win his Federal Constituency which is just one local government out of the twenty local governments in the state. Money failed him then and they ask if money would not fail him again.
It is also to his disadvantage that the tide of public opinion does not favour him. He is neither known to be an ally of the OGD group nor the OBJ group. It would be recalled that before the 2007 elections, Dimeji Bankole shuttled like a crazy yoyo between the OGD group and the OBJ group, First, he got the ticket to contest on the platform of the OGD faction of the PDP, which denied former Speaker of the Ogun State House of Assembly, Titi Oseni, the ticket. The story made the rounds of how Titi Oseni wept like a baby upon being denied the ticket for Dimeji.
As soon as the OBJ faction obtained judicial victory over the OGD faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Dimeji Bankole abandoned the OGD faction and was on his knees at Obasanjo’s hilltop villa begging for a ticket to contest the election on the platform of the Obasanjo faction of the Peoples Democratic Party. He got the ticket but he lost the election woefully.
Presently, Dimeji is not known with any of the major political structures in the state. Many in his Abeokuta homestead complain that Dimeji is too far removed from the grassroots, they complain about his arrogant and high handed nature. Dimeji would also have to contend with the opposition that would arise as a result of the fact that the incumbent Governor, who would also be seeking re-election, is also from Ogun Central like him.
Chief (Dr) Abayomi Majekodunmi: Abayomi Majekodunmi was the Chief of Staff to the immediate past Governor of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD). Before then, he had served as the Vice Chairman of the Gateway Games. Prior to his foray into politics, Majekodunmi was an accomplished banker who had risen to become the Managing Director of the defunct Reliance bank. An Egba man from the Abeokuta North Local Government Area, Majekodunmi wielded enormous influence in the OGD administration and was one of the most trusted aides of Governor Gbenga Daniel. However, shortly after the expiration of the tenure of the OGD administration, Dr Majekodunmi disappeared off the political radar of the state. While some said he had re-located to the United Kingdom, others speculated that the former Chief of Staff had moved to Abuja. And nothing was heard of him until he recently appeared at the thanksgiving service held at the by Otunba Gbenga Daniel to celebrate the new year, 2013.
Those in the know claim that Abayomi Majekodunmi’s appearance at the thanksgiving service is not unconnected with his ambition to become the next Governor of Ogun State. His ploy, they say, is to gradually warm his way back into the OGD political family and eventually win the support of the group in the bid to actualize his governorship ambition in 2015. But prominent members of the OGD family state that Abayomi Majekodunmi cannot be trusted and would therefore not be supported by the OGD family. They claim that he is unreliable and that he abandoned his former principal after they left government and in the heat of Otunba Gbenga Daniel’s arrest, detention and arraignment by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). They further allege that Abayomi Majekodunmi has a record of speaking from both sides of the mouth. A record that dates back to his days as a banker. “We would not support him. If we do, he would eventually betray us. Let him look for support elsewhere,” concluded a prominent voice in the OGD political family.
Dr Doyin Okupe: Medical Doctor and scion of the “Agbonmagbe” moneyed dynasty, Dr Doyin Okupe is a man that millions of Nigerians love to hate. This Ijebu man from the Ogun East senatorial district of Ogun State bounced back into reckoning in the middle of 2012, when he was appointed as the Senior Special Assistant on Public Affairs to President Goodluck Jonathan. Long before then, Dr Doyin Okupe had served in the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in a similar position. He fell out of favour with OBJ and was ignonimously thrown out of the Presidential Villa at that time. Doyin Okupe’s reputation precedes him as the man who is in charge of hurling insults and or vituperations on the President’s real or imaginary enemies. The President’s “attack dog” or “attack lion” (whichever you prefer) is also eyeing the number one position in Ogun State in 2015.
To actualize his ambition, Doyin Okupe plans to exploit his present position and his closeness to the seat of power to garner the needed support to quash all obstacles on his way to becoming the next Governor of Ogun State. He plans to contest on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). And this, of course, could be his greatest undoing. After serving as spokesman to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Okupe is known to have condemned and berated his former principal, saying that Obasanjo was incapable of leading the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to victory in the South West. Today, the former President’s influence in the Ogun State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) cannot be wished away. It may just be payback time for OBJ, a man who is not known to forgive easily. Close watchers of Ogun State politics postulate that the former President might be the biggest clog in the wheel of Doyin Okupe’s governorship ambition.
Add that to the fact that in his over thirty years stint in Nigerian politics, Doyin Okupe can hardly point to any individual contribution to the improvement of the Nigerian state, and you would get a clear picture of the obstacles that the Senior Special Assistant (SSA) Public Affairs to President Goodluck Jonathan, needs to surmount before he becomes the Governor of the Gateway State.
Sina Kawonise (SK): Former university teacher, author, journalist, public commentator, politician, former Commissioner of Information in Ogun State and present Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief of the Compass newspaper, Sina Kawonise is a man to watch as the 2015 governorship elections approaches in Ogun State.
He was appointed Commisioner of Information fifteen months to the end of the Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD) administration in Ogun State and in those fifteen months, Sina Kawonise gave such a good account of himself on the job that he became a folk hero of some sort. This was at a time when the image of the government was at its lowest ebb. Kawonise assumed his new position shooting from both hips. Those who know him say that “Kawonise would never have joined the OGD government if he was not convinced that the government meant well for the state and that he was in a position to contribute positively to the growth and development of the state through the commisionership position.”
Not one to join government for the perks of office, Kawonise gave his all in the fifteen months that he served as Commisioner of Information and to further show that his acceptance of the offer to serve in government was based on strong personal convictions and principles, Sina Kawonise continued to defend the legacies of the government he served in, long after he left office. Driven by the urge to defend the truth at all times, Kawonise has this to say, “When I was in government, I came out powerfully to say the truth which some people did not want to hear, truth that some people were not courageous to say or to declare. When I left government, I still come out because we have a government in Ogun State now that is very vindictive, a government that just does not have any clue. I’m constrained to continue to challenge the lies and shenanigans of Governor Ibikunle Amosun who has elevated deceits and lies to the level of the directive principle of state policy.” Those who know Kawonise describe him as loyal, principled, reliable and dependable.
Sina Kawonise’s non compromising position and utterances must have ruffled not a few feathers as he began to receive threat messages for his comments against the government of the day in Ogun State and on November 5th, 2012, on his way back from Awka, where he had gone to deliver a lecture, he was attacked by unknown gunmen at Ikeji-Arakeji in Osun State. He was shot alongside his police orderly but he survived after a six hour surgery at the University College Hospital, Ibadan. Undaunted, Kawonise is as determined as ever to wrest power from the present occupant of the Oke-Mosan Governor’s Office in 2015. Consultations are at an advanced stage concerning the platform on which this contender would contest.
Given the crisis bedeviling the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State, SK as he is fondly called by admirers, is likely to pitch his tent elsewhere. While some speculate that Kawonise might pick up the gubernatorial ticket of the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), others say that Kawonise might end up as the governorship candidate of either the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP) or the Labour Party (LP) in Ogun State.
Seen as OGD’s alter ego, this new kid on the block would most likely enjoy the backing of the OGD political family and would take advantage of the former Governor’s political structure. Kawonise, who does not see himself as representing Ijebu interest alone has a number of serving Governors as friends and also enjoys very cordial relationship with many prominent Nigerians. If he harnesses his enormous goodwill properly and deploys all the ammunition in his arsenal, SK would surely be okay for the governorship seat of Ogun State in 2015.
At his fiftieth birthday celebration held at the Conference Hotel, Ijebu-Ode in 2012, Kawonise received OGD’s tacit endorsement when the former Governor said ‘If we have two or three Kawonise’s in our state, Ogun State would be a better place to live in,’
Sarafa Tunji Isola: Former Federal Minister of Mines and Steel Development is also in the race for the number one seat in Ogun State in 2015 Sarafa, who had at various times served as Chairman of the Abeokuta North Local Government, Special Assistant to the Minister of State, Finance (1999-2003) and Secretary to the Ogun State Government (2003-2007) is also from the Ogun Central Senatorial District.
He became Minister of Mines and Steel Development on the recommendation of Otunba Gbenga Daniel but no sooner had he assumed this ministerial position did he fall out with OGD. The reason for their disagreement was quite simple. OGD was commited to handing over to a successor from the Yewa/Awori zone. Sarafa wanted to be Governor and he was not from Yewa/Awori. His feud with OGD turned out to be his greatest undoing as he was dropped as Minister by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Even in the build up to the 2007 elections, Sarafa continued to be pitched against his former boss, OGD, as he was a prominent member of the Obasanjo faction of the party and was even appointed as the Director General of the Olurin Campaign Organisation.
Sarafa Tunji Isola continued to fight the political structure that produced him. His disagreement stemming from the fact that he didn’t want OGD to hand over to a Yewa/Awori successor. Till date, Sarafa is rabidly anti- Yewa/Awori and he doesn’t hide this position. Political analysts were however thrown off-balance when Sarafa made a U-turn after OGD left government and went to reconcile with his former boss and benefactor. His intention is to be able to take advantage of the OGD political structure to become Governor of Ogun State in 2015.
Isola however has to contend with the following challenges. Some prominent members of the OGD political family believe that Sarafa is a spy who has been planted in the OGD group by the Obasanjo group. He therefore cannot be trusted. He is looked upon as a traitor. Others are of the opinion that Sarafa has little or no political influence beyond his Egba enclave. Add that to the fact that he is from the same local government with the incumbent Governor, who has concentrated so many developmental projects in the local government and your conclusion might be that Sarafa should just wait for some other time.
Hon Kayode Amusan: This former honorable member of the House of Representatives is also in the race for the Ogun governorship seat in 2015. Amusan, who represented Abeokuta North/Odeda/Obafemi Owode Federal Constituency from 2003 to 2011 has been holding meetings with stakeholders across the state.
